2026
Climate scenarios: decision tools, not forecastsLink
Musulin, Rade, Australian Institute of Company Directors, July 2026.
Research & thought leadership
Publications
This archive brings together my papers and articles on climate risk, natural catastrophes, resilience, insurance, reinsurance, public policy, and actuarial practice.
2020s
2026
Managing Risk in a World of PolycrisisPDF
Musulin, Rade, Contingencies, July/August 2026.
2026
When the Model BreaksPDF
Musulin, Rade, insuranceNEWS, June/July 2026.
2023
Climate Change Risk (and Opportunity) for the P&C ActuaryLink
Musulin, Rade, and Can, Alp, Actuarial Review, September 2023.
2022
Actuarial Evolution: Climate Risk is Our Next FrontierLink
Musulin, Rade, Actuarial Review, April 2022.
2022
Climate Science: A Summary for Actuaries - What the IPCC Climate Change Report 2021 Means for the Actuarial ProfessionPDF
International Actuarial Association and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, International Actuarial Association, March 2022. Rade Musulin was a lead author of this paper.
2021
Climate-Related Scenarios Applied to Insurers and Other Financial InstitutionsPDF
Musulin, Rade (lead author); Dal Moro, Eric; Gutterman, Sam; Yong, Evelyn; and Zalk, Tracey, International Actuarial Association, August 2021.
2021
More Than Global WarmingLink
Musulin, Rade, The Actuary, March 2021.
2010s
2019
Normalised Australian Insurance Losses from Natural Disasters: 1966–2017Link
McAneney, J., Sandercock, B., Crompton, R., Musulin, R., Pielke Jr., R., and Gissing, A., Environmental Hazards, April 2019.
2018
Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States 1900–2017Link
Weinkle, J., Landsea, C., Collins, D., Musulin, R., Klotzbach, P. J., and Pielke, Jr., R., Nature Sustainability, November 2018.
2018
‘Laws of Nature’ and the Insurance MultiversePDF
Musulin, Rade, Actuarial Update, September 2018.
2017
The Reality of Flood Insurance RepaymentPDF
Musulin, Rade, Casualty Quarterly, Fall 2017.
2017
Extreme Measures: How the design of the Florida “Cat Fund” fairly and efficiently provides funding for catastrophic hurricane lossesLink
Musulin, Rade, and Nicholson, Jack, The Actuary, June/July 2017.
2017
Under Water: The U.S. National Flood Insurance Program ReauthorisationPDF
Musulin, Rade, Actuaries Digital, April 2017.
2016
There Will Be Green In Green ConsultingPDF
Musulin, Rade, International Association of Consulting Actuaries (IACA) Newsletter, February 2016.
2015
Government-sponsored natural disaster insurance pools: A view from down-underLink
McAnneney, John; McAnneney, Delphine; Musulin, Rade; Walker, George; and Crompton, Ryan, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, December 2015. Please contact me at rmusulin@sprynet.com if you cannot get the paper from the Science Direct website.
2015
Rising TidesPDF
Musulin, Rade, Contingencies Magazine, November/December 2015. This article examines the exposure of governments, particularly the United States, to very large unfunded liabilities for protecting lives and properties from rising sea levels in coastal areas in coming decades.
2015
The Development of a Formal Framework for Discussing Earthquake Resilience of the Built EnvironmentPDF
Walker, George, and Musulin, Rade T., New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, April 2015.
2015
Application of insurance modelling tools to climate change adaptation decision-making relating to the built environmentLink
Walker, George R.; Mason, Matthew S.; Crompton, Ryan P.; and Musulin, Rade T., Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, March 2015.
2015
Survival SkillsPDF
Musulin, Rade, International Association of Consulting Actuaries (IACA) Newsletter, February 2015.
2015
Wind Resilience - What Do We Mean By It?PDF
Walker, George, and Musulin, Rade T., Australasian Wind Engineering Society, February 2015.
2014
Demographics, Development, and Disasters (Mandarin Version)PDF
Musulin, Rade T., Contingencies Magazine, September 2014.
2014
Demographics, Development, and DisastersPDF
Musulin, Rade T., Contingencies Magazine, September 2014.
2014
Disaster Risk Reduction and the Earthquake Code – A DisconnectPDF
Walker, George, and Musulin, Rade T., Australian Journal of Structural Engineering, March 2014.
2013
Market-based Mechanisms for Climate Change AdaptationPDF
McAneney, J.; Crompton, R.; McAneney, D.; Musulin, R.; Walker, G.; and Pielke, R., National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (Australia), September 2013.
2013
Climate change adaptation and the insurance systemPDF
Musulin, Rade T., Asia Insurance Review, June 2013.
2012
Earthquake catastrophe models in disaster response planning, risk mitigation, and financing in developing countries in AsiaPDF
Winspear, N.; Musulin, R.; and Sharma, M., Geological Society of London Special Publications, 2012.
2012
Sounding Off on SoundnessPDF
Musulin, R., Actuarial Update, American Academy of Actuaries, May 2012.
2011
Understanding CAT risk in captivesPDF
Musulin, Rade T., Asia Insurance Review, July 2011.
2010
Incentives for Mitigation - Who pays, Who benefits?PDF
Walker, G., and Musulin, R., New Zealand Society of Earthquake Engineering, March 2010.
2000s
2009
Dealing with the Axis of Financial Destruction: Demographics, Destruction, and DisastersPDF
Musulin, Rade T., Proceedings of the Aon Benfield Hazards Conference, September 2009.
2008
Actuarial (R)evolutionPDF
Musulin, Rade T., Actuary Australia, Actuaries Institute, April 2008.
2008
International Activity Beckons Actuaries Abroad - AustraliaPDF
Musulin, Rade T., Actuarial Update, American Academy of Actuaries, March 2008.
2008
Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005PDF
Pielke, R.; Gratz, J.; Landsea, C.; Collins, D.; Saunders, M.; and Musulin, R., Natural Hazards Review (American Society of Civil Engineers), February 2008.
2006
Insurance DownunderPDF
Musulin, Rade T., Florida Trend Magazine, November 2006.
2006
Do Advanced Catastrophe Models Pull the Plug on Risk Pools?PDF
Musulin, R., Actuarial Update, American Academy of Actuaries, September 2006.
2006
Actuarial Soundness and Public Insurance EntitiesPDF
Musulin, Rade T., Actuarial Update, American Academy of Actuaries, January 2006.
2005
Extreme Weather: Bad Luck or New Norm?PDF
Musulin, Rade T., Actuarial Update, American Academy of Actuaries, October 2005.
2005
Technology Alters Loss ForecastingPDF
Musulin, Rade T., Actuarial Update, American Academy of Actuaries, August 2005.
2005
Frequency MattersPDF
Musulin, Rade T., and Rollins, John W., Best Review Magazine, January 2005.
2004
Regulatory Improvement for Florida Consumers: A Proposal to Benefit Consumers and Bring More Capacity to the MarketPDF
Musulin, Rade T., and Grawe, George, Submission to the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation, March 2004.
2003
Terrorism Coverage: Economic Security Is Important, TooPDF
Musulin, Rade T., Florida Underwriter, February 2003. Discusses issues surrounding the Federal Terrorism Risk Insurance Act.
2002
Let's Give Credit Where Credit is DuePDF
Musulin, Rade T., National Underwriter, August 2002.
2002
Terrorism Cover: An Axis of UncertaintyPDF
Musulin, Rade T., National Underwriter, March 2002.
2001
Sound Bites and Fuzzy MathPDF
Musulin, Rade T., Contingencies Magazine, American Academy of Actuaries, November 2001.
2001
Courting Natural DisasterPDF
Musulin, Rade T., Actuarial Update, American Academy of Actuaries, September 2001.
2001
Optimizing a Multi-Season Catastrophe Program With Public and Private ComponentsPDF
Musulin, Rade T., and Rollins, John W., Casualty Actuarial Society Forum, Summer 2001. The paper was selected as one of two winners of the Reinsurance Call Paper Prize.
2000
Would a Federal Role in Disaster Protection be a Catastrophe?PDF
Musulin, Rade T., Contingencies Magazine, American Academy of Actuaries, November 2000.
1990s
1999
Evaluation of Catastrophe Models Using a Normalized Historical Record: Why it is needed and how to do itPDF
Pielke Jr., Roger A.; Landsea, Christopher W.; Musulin, Rade T.; and Downton, Mary, Journal of Insurance Regulation, Winter 1999.
1999
Taming the Big CatsPDF
Musulin, Rade T., Best's Review Magazine, March 1999.
1997
Can Our Children Afford Affordable Property Insurance?PDF
Musulin, Rade T., Emphasis Magazine, Tillinghast-Towers Perrin, Summer 1997, pp. 2-6.
1998
Issues in the Regulatory Acceptance of Computer Modeling for Property Insurance RatemakingPDF
Musulin, Rade T., Journal of Insurance Regulation, Spring 1997, pp. 342-359. This paper won the Spencer Kimball Award for the best paper of 1997 in the JIR. The NAIC President Pomeroy presented the award at the NAIC Summer Meeting in Boston, June, 1998. NAIC Article and Photo of Presentation.
1996
Review of “Measuring and Managing Catastrophe Risk”PDF
Musulin, Rade T., Journal of Actuarial Practice, Summer 1996.
Interviews, podcasts, and presentations
I have also collected recorded discussions, testimony, and media appearances on the Media page.